ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္တြင္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလွ်က္ရွိသည့္ ေလဖိအားနည္းဆဲလ္ INVEST 98B သည္ ပိုမိုအားေကာင္းလာၿပီး ႏိုဝင္ဘာလ ၁၇ ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ညေန ၁၅: ၃ဝ နာရီမွ ေနာက္ ၂၄ နာရီအတြင္း မုန္တိုင္း ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခအဆင့္ HIGH သို႔ သတ္ မွတ္လိုက္ၿပီျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း JTWC မွ ထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္တြင္ ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။
ႏိုဝင္ဘာ ၁၇ ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ညေန ၁၈: ၃ဝ နာရီတြင္ ရရွိသည့္ NRL data မ်ားအရ မုန္တိုင္းျဖစ္လာေတာ့မည့္ 98B သည္ လပြတၱာၿမိဳ႕ အေနာက္ဘက္ ၃၉ဝ မိုင္ခန္႔၊ ေက်ာက္ျဖဴၿမိဳ႕ အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၃၈ဝ ခန္႔၊ အိႏိၵယႏိုင္ငံ West Bengal ျပည္နယ္၊ Kolkata ၿမိဳ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၄၄ဝ ခန္႔ႏွင့္ ၾသရိသျပည္နယ္ (Odisha) Bhubaneswar ၿမိဳ႕ အေ႐ွ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ ၃၄၅ မိုင္ခန္႔တြင္ တည္ရွိေနၿပီး အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႔ ဆက္လက္ ေ႐ြ႕လ်ားႏိုင္မည္ဟု ခန္႔မွန္းထားပါသည္။ 98B ၏ ဗဟိုတြင္ ေလတိုက္ႏႈန္း ၃ဝ ေနာ္တီကယ္မိုင္ (တစ္နာရီ ၃၄.၅၂ မိုင္) ႏႈန္းရွိႏိုင္ၿပီး၊ ဖိအား 1000 hPa သို႔ က်ဆင္းလွ်က္ရွိေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ရွိရၿပီ လြန္ခဲ့သည္ ၆ နာရီအတြင္း အေနာက္ေျမက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီ ၆ မိုင္ခြဲႏႈန္းျဖင့္ ေ႐ြ႕လ်ားခဲ့ေၾကာင္း သိရပါသည္။
98B 17 Nov 2012 1200Z
Location: 16.2 88.9
Winds: 30 knots
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
JTWC Information
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 230 NM RADIUS OF 16.1N 88.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 89.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 230 NM RADIUS OF 16.1N 88.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 89.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 90.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 89.2E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 170423Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BAND OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MSI SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (05 TO 10 KNOTS). ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BAND OF DRY COOL AIR ATTEMPTING TO WRAP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER THE CENTRAL WARM CORE REMAINS ISOLATED FROM THIS BAND AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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